Nate's final column: "All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.
As any poker player
knows, those 8 percent chances do come up once in a while. If it happens
this year, then a lot of polling firms will have to re-examine their
assumptions — and we will have to re-examine ours about how trustworthy
the polls are. But the odds are that Mr. Obama will win another term."